Why Timing the Market Doesn't Matter As Much As You Think
One of the most common questions new investors ask is
"Should I start my SIP now, or wait for the market to correct?"
It's a question rooted in fear of buying at the top, fear of "bad timing," and fear of short-term losses.
But here's the reality: Waiting for the perfect time may cost you more than starting today.
Let's dive into real-world data using Nifty 50 index mutual fund SIPs between 2019 and 2025 and see what truly matters: time or timing?
Case Study 1: Investor A—Started Just Before the Crash
Entry: December 2019 (Right before the COVID crash)
- Tenure: 54 months
- Total Investment: ₹5.4 lakhs
- Corpus Value: ₹8.38 lakhs
- CAGR: Approx. 14.55%
Despite starting at one of the worst possible moments in recent market history, Investor A saw strong wealth creation just by staying consistent.
Key Lesson:
The market crash didn't ruin long-term results; discipline won over timing.
Case Study 2: Investor B—Started at the Market Bottom
Entry: March 2020 (Post-COVID crash)
- Tenure: 51 months
- Total Investment: ₹5.1 lakhs
- Corpus Value: ₹8.1 lakhs
- CAGR: Approx. 15.2%
Even with almost perfect timing, returns were only marginally higher than those of Investor A.
Key Lesson:
Even the best timing in years only improved returns by less than 1% CAGR.
Case Study 3: Investor C – Waited for Market Stability
Entry: December 2020 (Post-recovery)
- Tenure: 43 months
- Total Investment: ₹4.3 lakhs
- Corpus Value: ₹6.4 lakhs
- CAGR: Approx. 14.3%
Despite missing the recovery rally, Investor C still saw healthy long-term returns by sticking with their SIPs.
Key Lesson:
Late is better than never. Waiting for "confirmation" didn't hurt long-term goals.
Does Timing the Market Really Work for SIPs?
Let's break this myth further with some broader data from the Indian mutual fund industry:
- According to AMFI, investors who stayed invested in equity mutual funds through multiple market cycles (2008–2023) had average SIP returns of 12–15% CAGR.
- Data shows that delaying SIPs by even 1 year can reduce your corpus by up to 10–12% over 10 years.
- Rupee cost averaging, a core feature of SIPs, helps smooth out volatility. When markets fall, you buy more units; when they rise, your existing units gain value.
Why Timing the Market is Riskier Than Starting
Here's why chasing the perfect entry is a trap:
- Market corrections aren't predictable. Even seasoned investors can't catch bottoms consistently.
- Waiting means your money is idle, losing to inflation, or parked in low-yield assets.
- Consistency beats cleverness. A long-term SIP started at a market high has often outperformed lump-sum investments timed at dips.
Time in the Market > Timing the Market
All three investors in our real-world case studies ended up building wealth, even the one who started just before a crash. The difference in returns was minimal, but the impact of staying invested was huge.
So, if you're still debating whether this is the right time to start your SIP...
The best time to start was yesterday. The next best time is today.
Start Your SIP with Confidence—Not Fear
At Livelong Wealth, we help you start your SIP journey based on your goals, time horizon, and risk appetite, not market noise. Whether you're just getting started or planning your long-term portfolio, our mutual fund advisory ensures you don't fall into the timing trap.
Start small, start smart, but most importantly, start now.
FAQs
Q: Is it okay to start an SIP when the market is at an all-time high?
Yes. SIPs average out the cost over time. What matters more is how long you stay invested.
Q: Can I wait for a market correction before starting an SIP?
You can, but there's no guarantee the correction will come. Waiting too long might lead to missed opportunities.
Q: How long should I stay invested in mutual funds through SIPs?
Ideally, 5–10 years or more. The longer the tenure, the better the compounding effect.
Q: Where can I get guidance for SIP planning?
Reach out to Livelong Wealth for personalized advice and expert-managed SIP portfolios tailored to your needs.